Apple is still being very coy about how many Apple Watches it is selling, which means investors and analysts are left guessing. According to their latest estimates, sales for Q4 2015 range between 2.5 million and 6 million units.
Tim Cook revealed during an interview at WSJD this week that Apple doesn’t want to reveal its Watch sales figures because it doesn’t want its competition to know about them, but he did say that the company “shipped a lot the first quarter, then last quarter we shipped even more.”
“And I can predict this quarter we will ship even more,” Cook added.
This is a somewhat strange stance for a company that is usually so willing to disclose its sales figures, and it means we’re left without a accurate indication of just how successful Apple Watch has been so far. The latest estimations from analysts vary wildly.
Fortune’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt put together the chart below that shows Apple Watch’s estimated sales figures for Q4 from 17 analysts. Those highlighted in blue are from professional analysts; those highlighted in green are from “seasoned amateurs.”
As you can see, the biggest estimation so far is 6 million, while the smallest is just 2.5 million. The range is “as wide as I’ve ever seen for an Apple product,” Elmer-DeWitt writes.
More than anything, this proves that no one — not even the analysts closely following Apple’s moves — have any real idea of how well Apple Watch is selling. With that in mind, we should probably take any estimations like these with a pinch of salt.
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